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The more obvious answer is to agree with Charles Krauthammer that Donald Trump is the Al Sharpton of the GOP. Krauthammer’s rationale is that trump will have enough juice to make it into early presidential debates where he will force the discussion into fringe red meat issues like birtherism. There is plenty to critique barack obama about, but where he was born--which would be Hawaii--is not one of them. However, what can the other candidates on stage do at that point? Trump will have his time, and the press will eat it up. Nevertheless, I doubt trump can be dismissed so easily. He may very well have Ross Perot influence.

Allow me three caveats here. One, the GOP establishment will never let Trump get anywhere near the nomination. For that matter, will the Council on Foreign relations even bother to listen to Trump, especially given his limited discussions of foreign policy have been mind-numbingly stupid? Militarily seize Arab fields stupid. Two, I do not think trump is all that bright on economic policy, either. The guy has won and lost fortunes out of sheer luck and ex-wives. People reluctantly pay attention to people with money solely because of the money. Do people doing business with people think highly of his intellect, particularly his opinion on current affairs? I doubt they care about anything other than the location of his check back. Finally, even if he can go as far as Perot, we lost the presidential race twice. Neither time is it conclusive his run threw the election to wards the winner.

(Digression: I will concede the 1992 election has a better argument for his throwing ther race towards Bill Clinton, but I do not give the idea much legitimacy. The economy was killing Bush 41. It did not help he looked out of touch while Clinton was young, hip, and felt our pain. There was a lot of pain to feel, too. In terms of winning factors for Clinton, Perot as a spoiler ranks down their with the electorate desiring to see Hillary Clinton in more, tighter pantsuits. I was fifteen at the time, so not much of a contemporary political observer. Feel free to offer arguments that Perot threw the election towards Clinton. Until convinced otherwise, I am sticking to my guns. End of digression.)

In spite of all that, I am not so sure we have not changed so much as a country since 1992 and 1996 that someone like trump has not got a decent shot at political power. Would we have elected an unknown black man with questionable ties to known violent radicals and mysteries surrounding his birth and religious beliefs as president? Welcome to the 21st century.

We are a country obsessed with celebrity. Candidates like Sarah Palin and mike Huckabee have their own television shows. Second and third tier candidates run solely so they can land radio and television deals. There are always a handful of celebrities at the center of speculation for running for office. In recent years, it has been Kelsey Grammer, Dennis Miller, George Clooney, Warren Beatty, Ashley Judd, Rob Reiner, and Ben Affleck, et al. that does not count Arnold Swartzenegger and Al Franken who have sought and won office based exclusively on celebrity. Wisely or not, we are open to it no matter how unqualified the candidate, or what baggage they might be dragging with them. Why is that? Probably because being famous equals legitimacy in out culture.

Sure, Trump has been on some awful television projects like Celebrity Apprentice. he has also greased the palms of various Democrats over the years. Do not fortget Ronald Reagan starred in a B-movie with a chimpanzee and was once a democrat who adamantly supported FDR.

You know why reagan won in 1980? Because in 1976, the Gop realized it made a horrible mistaker in nominating a weaker candidate in Gerald Ford. As a weak candidate, Ford allowed an inexperienced liberal Jimmy Carter to be elected. Carter failed at energy policy, foreign policy, particularly towards the Muslim world, and nearly destroyed the economy out of incompetence. As a nation, we were happy to elect a candidate with a celebrity past who once supported Democrats because he talked tough.

I am certainly not putting Trump in the same league as Reagan. Reagan had a political track record as both Governor of California and President of the Screen actors Guild. But that was thirty years ago. Like I said, potential candidates do not have to have done anything significant in life before we will put them in power. Otherwise, just how different is the Reagan/Carter in 1980 scenario I described above different from Trump/Obama 2012? Not a whole lot, honestly. So much so, it might even be what is weighing on Trump’s mind.

I am not a Trump supporter. I do not think he is going to win even if I was. My real issue is wondering what will get him first, crashing and burning the same as Rusdy Giuliani in 2008, or will the germophobia overwhelm him as he shakes hands with the unwashed massses in New Hampshire and Iowa? But is he really a joke candidate, or have we elevated celebrity so much, he is the kind of thing we look for these days? How far he goes in the race will tell the tale.